Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty

From Theory to Practice
Langbeschreibung
This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them.
Hauptbeschreibung
Offers a comprehensive examination of the approaches and tools for designing plans under deep uncertainty and their application
Inhaltsverzeichnis
Chapter 1. Introduction.- Chapter 2. Robust Decision Making (RDM).- Chapter 3. Dynamic Adaptive Planning (DAP).- Chapter 4. Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP).- Chapter 5. Info-Gap (IG) Decision Theory.- Chapter 6. Engineering Options Analysis (EOA).- Chapter 7. Robust Decision Making (RDM) Applications Water Planning and Climate Policy.- Chapter 8. Dynamic Adaptive Planning (DAP) ¿ The Case of Intelligent Speed Adaptation.- Chapter 9. Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP): From Theory to Practice.- Chapter 10. Info-Gap (IG) Robust Design of a Mechanical Latch.- Chapter 11. Engineering Options Analysis (EOA) ¿ Applications.- Chapter 12. Decision Scaling (DS): Decision Support for Climate Change.- Chapter 13. A Conceptual Model of Planned Adaptation (PA).- Chapter 14. DMDU into Practice: Adaptive Delta Management in The Netherlands.- Chapter 15. Supporting DMDU: A Taxonomy of Approaches and Tools.- Chapter 16. Reflections: DMDU and Public Policy for Uncertain Times.- Chapter 17. Conclusions and Outlook.
Vincent A. W. J. Marchau (Radboud University (RU) ¿ Nijmegen School of Management) holds the chair on Uncertainty and Adaptivity of Societal Systems. The chair is supported by The Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends (STT). He received a Ph.D. from TU Delft in 2000 for his research on technology assessment of Automated Vehicle Guidance. Marchau is also Managing Director of the Dutch Research School for Transport, Infrastructure and Logistics (TRAIL), with 100 Ph.D. students and 50 staff members across 6 Dutch universities. His research focuses on long-term planning under uncertainty in transportation, logistics, spatial planning, energy, water, and security. He has been involved as a principal researcher within various national (e.g. NWO) and international (e.g. EU) projects regarding transport innovation assessment, long-term planning and decisionmaking under uncertainty in several domains. In addition to his professorship, Marchau is a member of the editorial board of EJTIR, IET-ITS, guest-editor of different scientific journals, and fellow of the KiM Netherlands Institute for Transport Policy Analysis (KiM). For several years, Marchau has worked closely with several societal partners, including: The Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management (organizing (a) courses for transport policymakers, and (b) projects on long-term planning); STT (on (a) foresight projects in the fields of e.g. transport, water, and energy, and (b) courses on decisionmaking under uncertainty); and the RAND Corporation/World Bank (organizing the annual workshop for decisionmaking under deep uncertainty for academics and practitioners).
ISBN-13:
9783030052515
Veröffentl:
2019
Erscheinungsdatum:
15.04.2019
Seiten:
420
Autor:
Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
Gewicht:
793 g
Format:
241x160x29 mm
Sprache:
Englisch

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