Beyond Frozen Conflict

The five unresolved separatist conflicts of the post-Soviet space in Eastern Europe are the biggest risk to Europe's stability and security. Four of these - Abkhazia, South Ossetia in Georgia, Transnistria in Moldova, and Nagorny Karabakh contested between Armenia and Azerbaijan - date back to around the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991-2, and became called 'frozen conflicts'. The fifth is Ukraine's Donbas, which in 2014 saw large parts of its Donetsk and Luhansk regions violently separate from Kyiv at a cost of 13,000 human lives so far, due crucially to Russia's supporting hybrid warfare there. This book is the first to give an up-to-date account of all five conflicts in an analytically consistent manner. It charts new territory in exploring systematically a full range of scenarios for the possible future of all five conflicts and offers a basis of sound information for officials, diplomats, scholars and the general public.

Executive Summary 1. Scenarios for the Future 2. Donbass 3. Transnistria 4. Abkhazia 5. South Ossetia 6. Nagorny Karabakh